吹炼炉入炉铜锍品位的灰色预测

来源期刊：中国有色金属学报2000年第5期

论文作者：胡军 梅炽 李欣峰 姚俊峰 胡志坤

文章页码：736 - 739

关键词：灰色预测； 灰色模型； 铜锍品位；吹炼

Key words：grey predict; gray model; matte grade; converting

摘    要：根据灰色理论，采用新陈代谢灰色建模法对铜锍品位的历史数据建立了GM(1， 1)模型群，并对各维模型进行了精度检验，计算表明维数为4～6时模型精度达A级， 维数继续增大则模型的精度变差。 选出精度高的模型对当前加入连续吹炼炉的铜锍的品位进行预测并做均值化处理， 采用此法对现场90余班次的数据进行了预测计算， 与化验值相比， 预测值的平均绝对误差在±0.5%以内。

Abstract: Based on the grey theory, by adopting metabolism grey modeling method, a series of GM(1, 1) models for the historical matte grade data were developed, and the accuracy of each model was also tested.The result shows that the grade of the models' accuracy is A as the dimension of the sequence is from 4 to 6. The grade of matte currently added in the continuum converting furnace can be gained by averaging the predicted value of the highaccuracy models. The comparison between the predicted value and the assay result shows an average absolute error only ±0.5%.