灰色理论在高路堤沉降预测中的应用

来源期刊：中南大学学报(自然科学版)2002年第3期

论文作者：吴大志 李夕兵 蒋卫东

文章页码：230 - 233

关键词：灰色理论;高路堤;沉降预测;填筑期;静载期

Key words：grey theory; high fills; settlement prediction; filling stage; static loaded stage

摘    要：运用灰色理论中的GM(1,1)模型对高路堤的沉降进行了预测,取沉降观测点在相同观测时段内的沉降量为原始序列,将其作1次累加生成1次累加序列,根据GM(1,1)模型建立灰色微分方程,其参数由最小二乘法得出,解微分方程可得方程的时间响应序列,也就是所预测的随时间而变化的沉降值.并采用后验差法对模型的可靠性进行了检验.通过对京珠高速公路某段高路堤线性填土期和静载期实测沉降数据的分析,证明将灰色理论应用于预测高路堤不同填筑时期的沉降量是可行的;在实际运用过程中,为了获得更准确的结果,应不断代入新近的实测数据.

Abstract: The GM(1,1) model in grey theory was used to predict the settlement value of high fills. This method selects the equal-interval in-situ settlement value as the initial sequence, then add the data from the first datum to the next to form the 1-AGO sequence, and thus the differential equation is established. To solve this equation, the authors get the settlement value along with the variation of the time, and check its precision. The in-site surveying settlement value of linear-filling stage and static loaded stage at some points of Beijing-Zhuhai high way were analysed, the results prove that the settlement value predicted with GM(1,1) model for different construction stages is feasible, and in order to gain more accurate results, the new updated data should be added to the model.