Sensitivity analysis of key input parameters in conditional cell transmission model for oversaturated arterials
来源期刊：中南大学学报(英文版)2013年第6期
论文作者：WANG Ping(王屏) S. L. JONES 杨群 S. GURUPACKIAM
文章页码：1772 - 1780
Key words：oversaturation; conditional cell transmission model; sensitivity analysis; delay; possibility
Abstract: A novel conditional cell transmission model (CCTM) is a potential simulation tool because it accommodates all traffic conditions from light condition to oversaturated condition. To test the performance of the CCTM, a series of experiments for sensitivity analysis were designed and performed for a multilane, two-way, three-signal sample network. Experiment 1 shows that the model is performed in a logical and expected manner with variations in traffic demand with time and direction. Experiment 2 shows when the possibility of the occurrence of a useful gap increases to 60% and 100%, the delays in left turns decrease by 5% and 15%, respectively. In Experiment 3, comparing the possibility of a conditional cell of 0 with 100%, delay of left turn and delay of the entire network were underestimated by 58% and 11%, respectively. Hence, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that by reflecting local drivers’ behaviors properly, the CCTM provides an accurate representation of traffic flow in simulating oversaturated traffic conditions.
WANG Ping(王屏)1, S. L. JONES2, YANG Qun(杨群)1, S. GURUPACKIAM2
(1. Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education (Tongji University),Shanghai 201804, China;2. Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama,Tuscaloosa 35401, USA)
Abstract:A novel conditional cell transmission model (CCTM) is a potential simulation tool because it accommodates all traffic conditions from light condition to oversaturated condition. To test the performance of the CCTM, a series of experiments for sensitivity analysis were designed and performed for a multilane, two-way, three-signal sample network. Experiment 1 shows that the model is performed in a logical and expected manner with variations in traffic demand with time and direction. Experiment 2 shows when the possibility of the occurrence of a useful gap increases to 60% and 100%, the delays in left turns decrease by 5% and 15%, respectively. In Experiment 3, comparing the possibility of a conditional cell of 0 with 100%, delay of left turn and delay of the entire network were underestimated by 58% and 11%, respectively. Hence, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that by reflecting local drivers’ behaviors properly, the CCTM provides an accurate representation of traffic flow in simulating oversaturated traffic conditions.
Key words:oversaturation; conditional cell transmission model; sensitivity analysis; delay; possibility
