车用三效催化转化器剩余寿命的非等间隔灰色预测

来源期刊:中南大学学报(自然科学版)2012年第4期

论文作者:毛丽 左青松 刘冠麟 龚金科

文章页码:1351 - 1354

关键词:车用三效催化转化器;剩余寿命;非等间隔灰色预测模型

Key words:three-way catalytic converter; residual life; non-equidistance grey forecasting model

摘    要:为了有效预测车用三效催化转化器的剩余寿命,在进行快速老化试验后,采用氮吸附法测定三效催化转化器比表面积,并在其实验比表面积减小率的基础上采用非等间隔灰色预测模型对车用三效催化转化器剩余寿命进行预测,并对其预测结果的残差进行后验差检验。研究结果表明:在进行快速老化试验204 min后,比表面积减小6.42%,即车用三效催化转化器耐久性寿命至少还有12万 km;后验差比值C<0.35,小误差概率P>0.95,表明车用三效催化转化器剩余寿命的非等间隔灰色预测模型预测结果具有较高的精度。

Abstract: In order to effectively forecast residual life of three-way catalytic converter, a nitrogen adsorption method was employed to measure the specific surface of three-way catalytic converter. Based on its experimental data, the residual life of the three-way catalytic converter was forecasted by the non-equidistance grey forecasting model. The posterior difference was processed for residual error on forecast. The results show that the specific surface reduction rate is 6.42%, and the residual life of three-way catalytic converter is not less than 120 000 km after aging 204 min. C<0.35,P>0.95, which indicates that the non-equidistance grey forecasting model has favourable accuracy with first degree.

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