Collaborative prediction for bus arrival time based on CPS

CAI Xue-song(蔡雪松)^{1, 2}

(1. Software College, East China Normal University, Shanghai 201112, China;
2. Vehicle Information Department, Shanghai Development Center of Computer Software Technology,
Shanghai 201112, China)

Abstract:To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was divided into three parts: running time, dwell time and intersection delay time, and the data were divided into three categories of historical data, static data and real-time data. The bus arrival time was obtained by fusion computing the real-time data in perception layer together with historical data and static data in collaborative layer. The validity of the collaborative model was verified by the data of a typical urban bus line in Shanghai, and 1538 sets of data were collected and analyzed from three different perspectives. By comparing the experimental results with the actual results, it is shown that the experimental results are with higher prediction accuracy, and the collaborative prediction model adopted is able to meet the demand for bus arrival prediction.

Key words:prediction model; cyber-physical system architecture; bus arrival time; collaborative prediction