基于R/S分析法的地下水位动态变化趋势分析
来源期刊：中南大学学报(自然科学版)2012年第12期
论文作者：张殷钦 胡伟 刘俊民
文章页码：4912 - 4916
关键词：R/S分析法；地下水位；时间序列；趋势
Key words：rescaled range analysis; groundwater level; time series; trend
摘 要：为预知兴平市黄土台原区未来的地下水位动态变化趋势，采用R/S分析法及其修正式计算065和066号井1994~2009年月平均水位埋深时间序列的Hurst指数以及统计量Vτ。通过分析区域地下水的补给来源，用Kendall秩次相关检验法和5点滑动平均法分别对兴平市同期的年降水序列和地表水灌溉序列进行了趋势成分识别。研究结果表明：065和066号井月平均水位埋深序列的H分别是0.989和0.974 9，相应的Vτ与ln τ的关系曲线向上倾斜，即065和066号井的水位埋深在未来年份仍然有着显著下降的趋势。兴平市年降水量略减少的趋势并不显著，灌溉水量却有着明显的减少趋势，这与同期的地下水位动态变化趋势是相一致的。
Abstract: To predict groundwater level regime variation trend of loess tableland areas in Xingping city, Hurst index and statistic Vτ of the groundwater level depth series for well 065 and 066 were calculated by R/S analysis method as well as its modification form. After analyzing the recharge source of regional groundwater, Kendall rank correlation test method and 5 points moving average method were employed to recognize the trend components of corresponding annual average precipitation and surface water irrigation series, respectively. The results indicate that H of well 065 and 066 water level depth series equal 0.989 and 0.974 9 separately. Meanwhile, the corresponding relation curves between Vτ and ln τ are both upward-sloping. Therefore, water levels of well 065 and 066 in future still have a significant dropping trend. The decreasing trend of annual average rainfall is not obvious while irrigation water reduces strikingly, which is consistent with the groundwater level dynamic change.
张殷钦，胡伟，刘俊民
(西北农林科技大学 水利与建筑工程学院，陕西 杨凌，712100)
摘 要：为预知兴平市黄土台原区未来的地下水位动态变化趋势，采用R/S分析法及其修正式计算065和066号井1994~2009年月平均水位埋深时间序列的Hurst指数以及统计量Vτ。通过分析区域地下水的补给来源，用Kendall秩次相关检验法和5点滑动平均法分别对兴平市同期的年降水序列和地表水灌溉序列进行了趋势成分识别。研究结果表明：065和066号井月平均水位埋深序列的H分别是0.989和0.974 9，相应的Vτ与ln τ的关系曲线向上倾斜，即065和066号井的水位埋深在未来年份仍然有着显著下降的趋势。兴平市年降水量略减少的趋势并不显著，灌溉水量却有着明显的减少趋势，这与同期的地下水位动态变化趋势是相一致的。
关键词：R/S分析法；地下水位；时间序列；趋势
ZHANG Yin-qin, HU Wei, LIU Jun-min
(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China)
Abstract:To predict groundwater level regime variation trend of loess tableland areas in Xingping city, Hurst index and statistic Vτ of the groundwater level depth series for well 065 and 066 were calculated by R/S analysis method as well as its modification form. After analyzing the recharge source of regional groundwater, Kendall rank correlation test method and 5 points moving average method were employed to recognize the trend components of corresponding annual average precipitation and surface water irrigation series, respectively. The results indicate that H of well 065 and 066 water level depth series equal 0.989 and 0.974 9 separately. Meanwhile, the corresponding relation curves between Vτ and ln τ are both upward-sloping. Therefore, water levels of well 065 and 066 in future still have a significant dropping trend. The decreasing trend of annual average rainfall is not obvious while irrigation water reduces strikingly, which is consistent with the groundwater level dynamic change.
Key words:rescaled range analysis; groundwater level; time series; trend
