稀土资源收储专项储备量的确定

来源期刊：有色金属科学与工程2012年第6期

论文作者：杨斌清 郑延智

文章页码：92 - 96

关键词：收储储备；专项储备量；模拟计算

Key words：storage reserves; reasonable reserve deal; analog computation

摘    要：文中梳理了定性确定稀土资源储备规模的文献资料，利用现实可提供储备量与预测趋势可提供储备量的波动关系以及储备量模拟模型，定量化计算了稀土资源收储储备量，以2000-2011年的稀土资源产、销、存数据为例，设计了稀土资源可提供储备量波动范围分别为0 ％、5 %和10 %的３个方案，模拟计算了３个方案的年最大储备量、最小储备量、专项储备量和绝对储备量，初步确定了2012年中国稀土资源收储的专项储备量.国家储备进行储备决策时，可以根据国家财政状况、国内外经济景气状况和稀土产业发展状况，选择实施高度储备、中度储备还是低度储备，并在不同储备思路指导下动态调节专项储备量.

Abstract: Through analyzing the literature on the size of rare earths reserves in qualitative research, utilizing the relationship between real supply and predicted supply deal, and using simulation model of reserve deal, quantitative calculation of the storage reserves of rare earths is conducted. Based on the data of rare earths production, sales and storage from 2000 to 2011, three plans are made. The volatility index of supply deal in each plan is 0 %, 5 %, 10 % respectively. Preliminary estimation of the reasonable reserve deal of rare earths in 2012 is obtained when analog computation is used for the annual maximum reserves, minimum storage and reasonable reserve deal in each plan. In accordance with the national finance, economic situation at home and abroad, the development of rare earth industry, reserves on high, medium or low levels will be chosen when decision-making on national reserves is needed. Under the guidance of different levels of reserves, the corresponding size of reserves will be adjusted.