Methodology for estimating probability of dynamical system’s failure for concrete gravity dam
来源期刊：中南大学学报(英文版)2014年第2期
论文作者：WANG Chao(王超) ZHANG She-rong(张社荣) SUN Bo(孙博) WANG Gao-hui(王高辉)
文章页码：775 - 789
Key words：concrete gravity dam; dynamical system; failure mode identification; calculation of system failure probability; stochastic model
Abstract: Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction. Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases: failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability. Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters (earthquake variability and material randomness). Firstly, failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly, for the calculation of the failure probability, mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam, which include three levels, that is element failure, path failure and system failure. A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.
WANG Chao(王超), ZHANG She-rong(张社荣), SUN Bo(孙博), WANG Gao-hui(王高辉)
(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety (Tianjin University), Tianjin 300072, China)
Abstract:Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction. Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases: failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability. Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters (earthquake variability and material randomness). Firstly, failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly, for the calculation of the failure probability, mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam, which include three levels, that is element failure, path failure and system failure. A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.
Key words:concrete gravity dam; dynamical system; failure mode identification; calculation of system failure probability; stochastic model
