基于贝叶思网络的发动机曲柄连杆机构可靠性分析

来源期刊：有色金属科学与工程2012年第2期

论文作者：古莹奎 熊耀刚 李晶

文章页码：96 - 100

关键词：贝叶斯网络；故障树；曲柄连杆机构；可靠性评估；重要度

Key words：Bayesian network; fault tree; crank rod system; reliability assessment; importance measure

摘    要：曲柄连杆机构是发动机中重要的组成部分，其工作状态直接影响发动机的输出性能。为评估其可靠性，识别系统中的薄弱环节，基于贝叶斯网络提出了一种曲柄连杆机构可靠性评估方法。在运用故障树进行分析的基础上进一步将故障树映射为贝叶斯网络，给出了故障树向贝叶斯网络的映射方法，融合各验前信息计算各底事件和顶事件的发生概率，分析各个底事件对系统整体可靠性的影响，并计算各事件的重要度指标，通过分析查找系统的薄弱环节，以应用实例对提出方法的有效可行性进行了验证。

Abstract:

The working state of crank rod system has direct influence on the engine's output performance. This paper studies a reliability analysis method using Bayesian network to evaluate its reliability and determine the system weakness. The mapping method is presented to establish the Bayesian network based on the fault tree analysis. The occurrence probability of the basic events and the top event can be calculated by fusing various kinds of prior information by analyzing the effects of each component on the system reliability and calculating the importance measures of each event. The vulnerable parts of the system are found out by the above analysis. An application example is illustrated to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.