Integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness for groundwater contamination risk assessment in a little town, Central China
来源期刊：中南大学学报(英文版)2014年第3期
论文作者：ZHU Hui-na(祝慧娜) YUAN Xing-zhong(袁兴中) LIANG Jie(梁婕) LIU Yong-de(刘永德) YIN Juan(尹娟) JIANG Hong-wei(江洪炜) HUANG Hua-jun(黄华军)
文章页码：1044 - 1050
Key words：integrated evaluation; randomness; fuzziness; modified health risk assessment; uncertainty; manganese
Abstract: An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of the parameters and the fuzziness of the risk were considered simultaneously, and the exceeding standard probability of contamination and human health risk due to the contamination were integrated. The contamination risk was defined as a combination of “vulnerability” and “hazard”. To calculate the value of “vulnerability”, pollutant concentration was simulated by MODFLOW with random input variables and a new modified health risk assessment (MRA) model was established to analyze the level of “hazard”. The limit concentration based on environmental-guideline and health risk due to manganese were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The “vulnerability” and “hazard” were divided into five categories of “high”, “medium-high”, “medium”, “low-medium” and “low”, respectively. Then, “vulnerability” and “hazard” were firstly combined by integrated evaluation. Compared with the other two scenarios under deterministic methods, the risk obtained in the proposed system is higher. This research illustrated that ignoring of uncertainties in evaluation process might underestimate the risk level.
ZHU Hui-na(祝慧娜)1, 2, 3, YUAN Xing-zhong(袁兴中)2, 3, LIANG Jie(梁婕)2, 3, LIU Yong-de(刘永德)1, YIN Juan(尹娟)4, JIANG Hong-wei(江洪炜)2, 3, HUANG Hua-jun(黄华军)2, 3
(1. School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450001, China;
2. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China;
3. Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control of Ministry of Education (Hunan University),
Changsha 410082, China;
4. School of Management Science and Engineering, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,
Nanning 530003, China)
Abstract:An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of the parameters and the fuzziness of the risk were considered simultaneously, and the exceeding standard probability of contamination and human health risk due to the contamination were integrated. The contamination risk was defined as a combination of “vulnerability” and “hazard”. To calculate the value of “vulnerability”, pollutant concentration was simulated by MODFLOW with random input variables and a new modified health risk assessment (MRA) model was established to analyze the level of “hazard”. The limit concentration based on environmental-guideline and health risk due to manganese were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The “vulnerability” and “hazard” were divided into five categories of “high”, “medium-high”, “medium”, “low-medium” and “low”, respectively. Then, “vulnerability” and “hazard” were firstly combined by integrated evaluation. Compared with the other two scenarios under deterministic methods, the risk obtained in the proposed system is higher. This research illustrated that ignoring of uncertainties in evaluation process might underestimate the risk level.
Key words:integrated evaluation; randomness; fuzziness; modified health risk assessment; uncertainty; manganese
